Turkey and Russia: Dynamics of Relations in the Context of the Ukraine Crisis

Abstract

This research analyzes Turkey’s dynamic relations with Russia in context of the war in Ukraine, with a particular emphasis on how Ankara finds a balance between its strategic and economic interests in keeping relations with Moscow and its NATO obligations. It illustrates Turkey’s balancing act between Russia and the West by analyzing its involvement in the Black Sea Grain Deal, alongside other key cases such as the procurement of the S-400 missile system, energy diplomacy with Russia, and the supply of drones to Ukraine. Hence, this research revolves around the main question of why Turkey has deviated from other NATO partners in completely isolating and sanctioning Russia following its strategic autonomy approach and regional
dynamics. Our main focus is on the period from 2014 to 2025, beginning with Russia’s annexation of Crimea up until the full-scale invasion in February 2022, covering key turning points in Turkey-Russia relations, such as the downing of a Russian jet, the procurement of S-400 systems, cooperation in Syria, and Turkey’s evolving position in the geopolitics of the
region. This broader timeframe allows for a comparative analysis of foreign policy trends across different phases of the crisis. The findings might serve as a platform for future study into Turkey’s position in multipolar international relations and crisis diplomacy.